A Grim Statistical History
Teams that go up 3-0 in a best-of-seven Stanley Cup Final have won 27 of 28 series. The only exception occurred in 1942 when the Toronto Maple Leafs rallied to defeat the Detroit Red Wings. Of those 28 series, 20 have ended in sweeps.
The Panthers are attempting to complete a sweep in the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since the Red Wings eliminated the Washington Capitals in four games in 1998. Even if the Oilers manage to send the series back to South Florida with a Game 4 win, 25 of those 28 series have ended in no more than five games. Despite the odds being heavily stacked against them, the Oilers still believe they have a chance.
Oilers' Current Struggles
The Oilers are now 0-5-0 against the Panthers this season. Edmonton showed some fight in the third period Thursday, scoring goals from Philip Broberg and Ryan McLeod to cut the Panthers' lead to 4-3. However, the critical takeaway from Game 3 was that the Oilers were down 4-1 entering the third period—on home ice, in a must-win game, against a team with a plus-15 goal differential in the final frame during the postseason.
Their undoing came during an embarrassing 6:19 stretch in the second period when Florida scored three goals. The Oilers had just tied the game at 1-all on a Warren Foegele breakaway goal. A turnover by Stuart Skinner allowed forward Eetu Luostarinen to find Vladimir Tarasenko, making it 2-1 and deflating the crowd at 9:12. It was 3-1 at 13:57 as solid forechecking by Matthew Tkachuk helped force a Darnell Nurse turnover that Sam Bennett snapped into the net for his seventh of the playoffs. Aleksander Barkov capped the scoring at 15:31, converting a 2-on-1 chance that the Oilers allowed to start from deep inside their attacking zone.
The Stars Fail to Shine
The mistakes for Edmonton piled up, while the goals for their star players did not. Foegele, Broberg, McLeod, and Mattias Ekholm have found the back of the net, but the Oilers' five leading scorers in the playoffs—Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, and defenseman Evan Bouchard—have not.
These five players also run the Oilers' power play, which has been powerless this series against the Florida penalty kill, which stands at 10-for-10. Edmonton's power play came into the series operating at over 37%, the best in the postseason. While McDavid has hit the score sheet with assists on three of the four Oilers' goals in the series, the other players have yet to score a point in the Stanley Cup Final.
Taking Responsibility
Disappointment looms large within the Oilers' locker room, but there is an understanding that they must take responsibility for their struggles. Leon Draisaitl expressed his frustration: "Yeah, it's very frustrating, of course. I pride myself on being good in the playoffs and playing well and just can't seem to get anything going. So yeah, I obviously have to look in the mirror and try to be better."
Draisaitl also highlighted the mistakes that have been costly: "We shot ourselves in the foot a little bit today. Made some individual and collective mistakes that they immediately took advantage of." Goalie Stuart Skinner echoed these sentiments: "It is disappointing being down 3-0. We've got to let that reality sink in. I'm not too sure what the stats are on coming back in it, but if anyone can do it, it's the Oil."
Coach Kris Knoblauch remains optimistic, asserting the team's belief: "I think we've shown that we can beat this team. I think there's a lot of belief in that. It's not like we're getting outplayed and we're just saying, 'That team's better than us.' We can string together a lot of wins. We've shown it. I don't think there's any doubt in our room."
He added, "There's frustration that we're down, but there's a difference between frustration and quitting. There's absolutely no quit. There's a belief that we can do this, so we just need to keep pushing." Skinner also noted the momentum swings: "After they got that second one, they just kind of got on a roll. We let them take that momentum and stride with it. They got two more quick ones. Just kind of silly mistakes that don't need to happen."
Draisaitl concluded with a call to focus on the immediate task: "We're a good offensive team. They're doing a good job, but we're still getting our looks. It's just when you're chasing the game for a big chunk of the night, it's hard to come back. It's a steep hill right now, obviously. No choice but to take it one game at a time. Try and get one win in Game 4 and go from there."